Endorsements

Since I last blogged about the mayoral election in Mississauga in 2014, Steve Mahoney apologized for the advertisements that suggested incumbent Mayor Hazel McCallion endorsed him. McCallion then surprised Mahoney and many others by explicitly backing Bonnie Crombie. In an unlikely coincidence, Crombie surged in the polls, turning a close race into one where she leads by a wide margin.

Hazel's endorsement matters. Studies show that in non-partisan local elections, endorsements matter, largely because voters look for signals about whom to support. In partisan races, one easy signal is the party label, but in the absence of that short-cut towards political understanding, trusted political leaders can substitute. For voters struggling to decide between Crombie and Mahoney, McCallion's endorsement of Crombie, especially after McCallion long promised to stay neutral, is such a signal.

Up until now, there was not much that gave voters a reliable signal over which candidate to support. Not much differentiates the platforms of two former Liberal MPs. Neither candidate easily can be categorized as being on the left or as being on the right since both promise to expand government services like transit, government supervision on matters like development and planning, but both promise to keep tax rates in check.

Until the endorsement, Mahoney, his councillor wife Katie, and Crombie have long enjoyed close ties to Mayor McCallion. The close ties between McCallion and both Mahoneys helps explain Katie Mahoney's rather angry and bitter reaction to the news of Hazel's endorsement. So, losing McCallion's endorsement puts Mahoney at a severe disadvantage if he wants to claim the ability to continue a popular legacy from the incumbent. If Mahoney wanted to run as the voice of change against the establishment, he would have run a very different campaign. McCallion's endorsement takes away an important foundation of his appeal.

Mahoney is countering with several MP and MPP endorsements. Two, Brad Butt and Bob Dechert, are Conservatives, which is useful for a former Liberal MP and MPP, but at the same time Mahoney's [relative] fiscal conservatism makes such endorsements unsurprising. Furthermore, Butt defeated Crombie in the federal election. It would have been a surprise if he supported her now.

The ethnic background of endorsers may be used as signals if the endorser is seen as a leader of a particular community. Only one visible minority MPP, Harinder Takhar, endorsed Mahoney. Takhar represents a riding that overlaps with Ward 8, the ward Katie Mahoney represents. Vic Dhillon and Amrit Mangat have endorsed Crombie. The others have not publicly introduced either mayoral candidate.

Mahoney is highlighting the endorsements of five current members of council, including his wife. All represent western Mississauga. The only councillor in the west who has not endorsed Mahoney, George Carlson (Ward 11). Carlson says that the two candidates have such similar positions, he'll work with both. That is probably one-third of the story. There is surely a strategic element, as Carlson does not want to be caught taking the wrong side and alienating the winner or the winner's supporters. Carlson's last re-election bid was relatively close after Carlson was part of the coalition that favored the inquiry into McCallion's corruption scandal and McCallion tacitly backed his opponent, the co-chair of Bonnie Crombie's campaign!

The other councilors may have similar strategic concerns. In the absence of parties, these councilors find it expedient to allow Crombie supporters to think they support Crombie, and Mahoney supporters to think they support Mahoney. The absence of an endorsement from them does not mean that they do not think Crombie is qualified, it just means that they have little to gain by offering an endorsement, and a lot to lose in this election, or the next, if they endorse the loser. Long-time friends have less to fear, especially, like in the case of Pat Saito, they have been [re-] elected for decades without much competition.

The bottom line is that I don't think the absence of councillor endorsements of Crombie is all that indicative of their opinion of Crombie's competence (as Mahoney would lead you to believe), but may be more directly the result of strategic considerations.

Thank you, Hazel (and vote for me)

What to do if the wildly popular incumbent is retiring after 36 years in office? Compete over efforts to thank her for her service!

Both Bonnie Crombie and Steve Mahoney are using Hazel in their social media blitz, encouraging people to either sign an on-line petition (Mahoney) or come to the campaign office to sign a thank you poster (Crombie).

Here's what Mahoney sent out via twitter. Click the link and you can see a laudatory letter to Hazel from Steve and you can sign the thank you note yourself:

Hazel entrusts her successor with strong foundation for future of #Mississauga #ThankYouHazel http://t.co/lbcjpOaKq2 pic.twitter.com/RztE8Rhcj6
— Team Mahoney (@Mahoney4Mayor) September 10, 2014

Here's Crombie's sponsored facebook post (which means her campaign paid for it to appear on my timeline; I think Mahoney did the same with a facebook post just like his tweet on September 10):

Both campaigns clearly think that associating with Hazel with attract voters. Mahoney's use of Hazel's image on a backdrop that matches his campaign's blue could be seen as a devious attempt to make it look like he enjoys Hazel's endorsement (she is officially neutral and has been close to both Crombie and Mahoney) or a brilliant way to connect Hazel with his campaign "brand." I wonder how many people scrolling through their news feed saw Hazel, the Mahoney blue and assumed that he enjoyed her support!

The question is, will it work? Or do people know that Hazel is neutral?

A Guide for the Perplexed: Comparing Bonnie Crombie's and Steve Mahoney's Platforms

Many criticize the media for covering the horse-race aspect of elections rather than highlighting and discussing policy differences between the candidates. I wanted to fix that by creating a table that, as best as I could, compared and contrasted the platforms of Mississauga mayoral candidates, Bonnie Crombie and Steve Mahoney. My sources were each candidates websites (http://bonniecrombie.ca/platform/ and http://www.votemahoney.ca/plan) along with gleanings from recent news coverage of their campaigns, including their profiles in the Mississauga News.

The bottom line is that I don't find the sharp divisions between the policy stances of the two leading candidates here in Mississauga like the ones separating mayoral candidates in Toronto. Perhaps one should not be surprised that two former Liberal Party MPs share many of the same visions, or that both aim to earn the support of many who adore popular incumbent Mayor Hazel McCallion while pointing out a few areas where they hope to improve upon her leadership.

It is not surprising that so many citizens tell pollsters that they are undecided between Ms. Crombie and Mr. Mahoney. There are fourteen other candidates, some of whom like Stephen King, have sharply differing visions for transit, taxes, or public housing, but they do not seem to be gaining any traction among voters.

Please note that the published platforms are quite vague, but in a recent conversation with Mr. Mahoney and others, I understand that, in person, both candidates tend to be more specific about their recommendations. As a result, I will update this table or create new blog posts as I receive more information. If I have made any errors by omission or commission, please comment and I'll review and revise.

Finally, a disclaimer: although a resident of Mississauga and a political scientist, I am not a citizen. Therefore, I do not vote and I have not endorsed either candidate.

Issue	Bonnie Crombie	Steve Mahoney	Comments
Development	“Smart development based on family-friendly, mixed-use, higher density development around transit nodes and along major arterial roads” (especially along Hurontario and “downtown”); prioritizing waterfront parkland.	“Appoint a Mississauga Community Development Facilitator focused on more liveable and active neighbourhoods.” Dedicated fund for parks and playgrounds; public-private partnerships to develop waterfront. Bond-like loans from pension funds or sales of public utilities for infrastructure.	Lots of buzzwords associated with two pro-development stances that are implicitly critical of the low-density development that has marked most of Mississauga’s residential and commercial development until recent years – when there are no longer many greenfield opportunities for growth.
Transit	Two-way frequent Go train service; electrification of Go lines to speed up service and enable new stations; real-time bus status tracking; study improvements along Dundas St.	Two-way frequent Go train service; Build Hurontario LRT and east-west rapid transit; timed, “intelligent” traffic lights.	Both candidates largely agree on transit, and both support more provincial and federal funding to improve transit. Both are silent on potential bottlenecks like needing to expand the rail corridor through Streetsville (over inevitable community opposition) to enable two-way, electrified GO service. I’m skeptical of Crombie’s claim that electrification will speed up service if so many passengers continue to board at a handful of stations like Cooksville.
Taxes	--	Keep taxes within inflation rate.	Mahoney’s not making a read-my-lips-no-new-taxes pledge, but his emphasis on holding tax rates low differentiates his platform from Crombie.
Anti-Poverty	Work with food banks; reduce wait times for public housing	--	Both candidates are pro-development to the extent to which they are implicitly anti-NIMBY. But surprising that neither say anything about building more public housing or rising housing costs for lower- and middle-class citizens.
Seniors	Investigate off-peak fare reduction for seniors; senior community centres; culturally-specific affordable senior housing.	--
Economy	Youth employment initiative; sector-specific incentives; more funding for arts; new engineering school at Sheridan and UTM	Require more apprenticeships at city; start co-op and experiential learning program; recruit international universities to Mississauga; market villages as tourist destinations; encourage recognition of foreign credentials	Strikingly similar proposals that differ only in some small details.
Other	Create a “Diversity and Inclusion Advisory Committee”;	Participatory budgeting; improve coordination of newcomer services; enhanced digital services on-line; fair wage and safety policies for city projects; create "Office of the Mississauga Ambassador" for immigrant support, diversity programs and business growth.	Surprisingly, no discussion of increasing services in northwest Mississauga when there are no open community centres north of Brittania and west of Hurontario for the next two years. Also, surprising that crime prevention and policing is not mentioned by either.

Mayor Hazel scolded, but will remain in office. What does this say about the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act?

Today, Judge John Sproat issued his opinion in the case against Mississauga Mayor Hazel McCallion, dismissing the complaint brought by Elias Hazineh that she violated the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act (MCIA). The case was dismissed because Judge Sproat found that Hazineh did not commence his complaint within the six week deadline established by the MCIA and that the votes the complaint focused on would not have applied to Mayor McCallion's son Peter McCallion's hotel project. This raises questions about whether the MCIA provides a viable mechanism for anyone to bring forward charges that politicians violate conflict of interest concerns.

Judge Sproat was sharply critical of Mayor McCallion's court testimony and some of her actions as mayor. Judge Sproat found that McCallion had the same financial interest as her son according to the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act (making it necessary that she disclose such an interest on any relevant votes), was "willfully blind to the status" of her son's hotel development project and found that Mayor McCallion's "understanding of her legal obligations is contrary to common sense." (see pages 5, 9-10 of the judge's decision here: http://media.zuza.com/7/1/71e514a8-2d63-41ec-9af1-4eb88a0f1b24/Hazineh_v_McCallion_-_Summary_of_Decision_June_14,_2013.pdf)

Notably, Judge Sproat in his thorough discussion of the evidence, also clearly explained that the votes in question did not apply to Peter McCallion's hotel development, so there was no likelihood that Mayor McCallion's actions would have been motivated by her financial conflict of interest (page 6). I was surprised by how extensively Judge Sproat discussed the evidence given that the the decision was ultimately based on a technicality that Mr. Hazineh did not commence his application within the six week deadline for such filings as prescribed by the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act.

Mayor McCallion will remain in office, but promises to be in office only for another year. The important question citizens and taxpayers across Ontario must ask in light of the ruling is whether the MCIA must be revised before we could reasonably expect to have the effect on corruption and conflict of interest cases that it is designed to ensure. A six-week deadline to file a complaint may simply be too short of a time span for anyone to decide to challenge the actions of an official who may be acting in a corrupt fashion. This is especially true when a potential whistle-blower must consider the personal financial costs and risks of bring such a complaint. The Municipal Conflict of Interest Act must provide a viable mechanism to remove corrupt officeholders and I am not sure the six-week deadline provides such a viable mechanism. At the same time, seeing that Mayor McCallion reportedly spent $500,000 to defend herself from such charges, there clearly needs to be some barrier against frivolous suits. A six week deadline, though, is too high a barrier.

Respect democracy, respect Crombie

There are several election fraud lawsuits progressing across the GTA. Most involve violations that the candidates spent more than the limit for candidates in local elections.  The problem with these regulations is that violations are often quite small and arguably had little impact on the election outcome. Such campaigns are costly for both citizen and defendant and are little more than nuisance lawsuits that dangerously dilute the notion of election fraud.

Asking a judge to overrule the results of a democratic election is troubling and ought to require a mountain of evidence that the violations were egregious and may have made a difference to the election outcome. More often, these concerns should be raised when the elected official next seeks election.

Several opponents of Mississauga Ward 5 councillor +Bonnie Crombie have tried to overturn her narrow victory in the Ward 5 by-election to replace +Eve Adams. Crombie is right to ask these opponents to move on. Crombie is accused of illegally spending money on a poll before entering the race, and for failing to report the fair market value of products used during her campaign - specifically yard signs recycled from her previous candidacies as a Liberal MP. +Cecil Young and +Mark Cashin and their supporters argue that such signs should be valued like new signs or as illegal gifts from the Liberal Party. Crombie argues - correctly- that the value of old yard signs is virtually nil.

Ironically, Crombie was not the only candidate to recycle signs during the campaign. Most egregiously, Eve Adams' then-husband used her signs even if they said "re-elect."

Strategically, it was a wise move for Crombie to reuse her Liberal-red signs and those signs arguably played an important role in educating voters about their options. If her use of those signs was against the law, the law should be revised. She was a Liberal MP and that was part of her "brand" and her appeal. As a councillor, she is non-partisan, but reminding voters of her past record of public service and some of the stances she took as a MP would be vital tasks in any election campaign. Such information is necessary for voters to make educated decisions. Party labels play an important role in providing such information to voters who have little other knowledge about the candidates and the issues. Her past record as a center-left Liberal helps many voters fill in the gaps of their own knowledge!

If voters think that Ms. Crombie won her place on council through underhanded tactics, and I find that unlikely, they should wait until the next election to cast her out. In the meantime, they should find other reasons for voters to choose to elect someone else as Ward 5 Councillor or, perhaps soon, as Mayor!

Policies in search of a problem, or why citizens hate city hall

Brampton residents are angry about one of their neighbors knocking down a small house and building a huge house in its place. It appears that his construction is legal... But in response to the public complaints, Brampton City Council passed new zoning rules that prevent anyone from adding more than 15% of their existing house without gaining a zoning exemption (which takes time and costs money). The new rule will not impact the house that everyone is already upset about. Instead, it will affect almost everyone to expand their kitchen or add a new bedroom or sun room to the back of their house.

Is anyone asking why council passed this rule, knowing that it a) would not solve the existing problem, b) will create lots of red tape for many other people? Any policy change that fails to solve a perceived existing problem while causing more red tape restricting individual rights and property values for many people can only be called 'bad policy.'

This is why citizens hate city hall: powerless to stop a [perceived] problem, lacking the guts to admit impotence, and a new rule that overcompensates by generating unnecessary red tape for hundreds.

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2013/02/13/brampton_passes_temporary_bylaw_to_restrict_house_expansions_to_15.html

Did politics keep Amrit Mangat out of the cabinet?

New Ontario Premier +Kathleen Wynne announced her new cabinet yesterday and Mississauga-Brampton South MPP Amrit Mangat remains on the back-benches. Mangat’s exclusion appears to have much to do with her support for Wynne opponents +Eric Hoskins and Sandra Pupatello at the recent Ontario Liberal Leadership Convention.

Wynne’s new cabinet represents a major overhaul and expansion of the executive, so it may be surprising to some that Mangat was not promoted. Wynne will have 27 MPs on her executive committee, including many who are serving for the first time.

Not surprisingly, most appointments went to allies of Wynne's during her fight to become Premier. All ten MPs who backed her candidacy are ministers, including Linda Jeffrey, the MPP for Brampton-Springdale. Jeffrey will become Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, a potentially important position for the Peel Region and the challenges the region is facing in the cost of housing. Jeffrey will also serve as chair of the Liberal cabinet.

Bravely endorsing Wynne before the leadership convention was not a pre-requisite for inclusion in the cabinet. All of Wynne’s announced opponents at the Liberal leadership convention who currently sit as MPPs, Charles Sousa (Mississauga South), +Eric Hoskins (Toronto-St. Paul), Glen Murray (Toronto-Centre), and Harinder Takhar (Mississauga-Erindale) will join Wynne’s cabinet.

All but Takhar actually received promotions. Sousa will become Finance Minister, Hoskins will be Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Employment, and Murray will assume the infrastructure and transportation portfolios. Since none were seen as a likely winner at the Liberal leadership convention, their candidacies were likely motivated by bids to boost their visibility in order to garner cabinet promotions. Murray, Sousa and Hoskins played their political hands shrewdly, endorsing Wynne after dropping out of the race (Murray withdrew before the convention, while Sousa and Hopkins endorsed during the balloting). Takhar was the only opponent to endorse Pupatello and should count himself lucky to remain in cabinet.

Mangat was one of three MPPs who initially backed Hoskins’ candidacy for party leadership. Hoskins was eliminated on the first ballot, causing two of his backers,

Margarett Best (Scarborough-Guildwood) and Tracy MacCharles (Pickering-Scarborough East) to throw their support to Wynne. Mangat, though, endorsed Wynne’s biggest opponent, Sandra Pupatello. Best’s endorsement appears to be too little, too late, as she was demoted from outgoing Premier Dalton McGuinty’s cabinet. MacCharles, though, received the consumer services portfolio.

Three other Peel Region MPPs who failed to back Wynne until late in the balloting (if ever), Pupatello supporter +Dipika Damerla (Mississauga East—Cooksville), and Gerard Kennedy supporters +Bob Delaney (Mississauga-Streetsville) and Vic Dhillon (Brampton West) will join Mangat on the back-benches. Dhillon & Mangat received Parliamentary Assistant appointments.