tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-75695897757378107272024-03-14T01:04:48.157-04:00Renan Levine's Mississauga Politics BlogAn occasional look at local Mississauga and Brampton Politics by a Political Scientist at UTSC. I primarily focus on the riding of Mississauga-Brampton South.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-91400409136216116142014-10-26T00:25:00.001-04:002014-10-26T00:30:11.844-04:00Crombie cruising to an easy win? Five reasons maybe not.I speculated earlier in the week that Steve Mahoney might do great in southwest Mississauga, but Crombie could expect to do well in the other three quadrants. The last Forum Poll suggests that Mahoney may be trailing Bonnie Crombie even in his "home" quadrant in the southwest. Mahoney is also trailing with voters over age 65.<br />
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That is bad news for Mahoney.<br />
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Municipal elections are often decided by differential turnout. The big challenge for pollsters is not determining who citizens prefer, but rather who is likely to actually vote. Older voters who have lived in an area for a long time are one of the groups most likely to vote. In this election, I expect that is a big advantage for Mahoney, who last held elected office in 2004. People who have long supported Mahoney and his wife, City Councillor Katie Mahoney, in southwest Mississauga should be expected to be Mahoney's core base of support. And many of those who remember voting for Mahoney at the federal or provincial level are among the most likely to turn out to vote. Advantage Mahoney.<br />
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Surprisingly, the latest (and potentially last) poll, by Forum Research (see <a href="http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/179/crombie-maintains-wide-lead-in-mississauga">http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/179/crombie-maintains-wide-lead-in-mississauga</a> and full results here: <a href="http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Mississauga%20Issues%20News%20Release%20(2014%2010%2024)%20Forum%20Research.pdf">http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Mississauga%20Issues%20News%20Release%20(2014%2010%2024)%20Forum%20Research.pdf</a>) show Mahoney behind in both his home "quadrant," 49% - 41% and trailing among older voters. Actually, to be blunt, Mahoney is trailing in pretty much in every demographic category: young voters, old voters, men, women, PCs, and Liberals. This does not portend well for Mahoney.<br />
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However, be cautious when reviewing these results. This poll may be an accurate gauge of public opinion in Mississauga, but much can be wrong about these results.<br />
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This Forum Research poll is an automated telephone call conducted on a Friday night. Only 308 respondents answered the call and told Forum Research who they intended to vote for (or had already voted for). Forum Research included 286 of these responses in a proprietary weighting scheme based on the demographic information the respondents provided to give estimates that should reflect the voting population in Mississauga. There are five reasons to be especially cautious when reviewing this polls' findings:<br />
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First, automated polls are good at sampling households or phone numbers, but not household members. If certain demographics are more likely to answer the phone in a house - like they are in my house- that could bias the results. For example, many young people assume that no one they know will be calling their parents' home phone, so many do not answer that line. This can be minimized by the pollster's weighting algorithm, but only if one assumes that those who answered the phone had similar views to those with similar demographics who did not. In other words, a 22 year old living with her parents who did not answer her phone would be expected to have similar political views to a 22 year old living in an apartment (with a number that identifies her as a Mississauga resident).<br />
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Second, the poll was completed over just one evening. A Friday. Were you home all evening on Friday? Many people go out on Friday nights. Especially if they are celebrating Diwali, or honoring a soldier on the Highway of Heroes, as many did on Friday night, October 24, 2014. They didn't answer their phones. Neither did some who were enjoying a family dinner. That could bias the sample. Most phone surveys go out in the field for more than one evening to avoid biases caused by certain demographic groups being out one night compared to other groups. I am not surprised that about 40% of the sample were older than 65.<br />
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Third, most surveys are larger than 300 people. I suspect that Forum intended this survey to be larger; a recent poll of Brampton voters was a more typical 1000 voters. This may have been intentional, as Forum may have been working with a small sample to mute criticism that their previous poll was biased by a robocall sent out shortly beforehand by the Crombie campaign. Or, it may reflect a paltry response rate (it was a Friday night!). Forum didn't disclose their response rate (unless I'm misreading the difference between 308 calls and 286 respondents with demographic info). Response rate biases are not covered in the published margin of error (6 percentage points in sample of this size), but can be minimized by Forum's weighting algorithm IF there is nothing remarkable about the people with similar demographics who did answer the phone.<br />
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Fourth, Forum Research did not disclose the number of undecided voters. Forum's reported figures include those who have decided whom they are voting for, and those who are leaning towards one candidate or the other. Since the percentages sum to 100, Forum Research must have excluded all those who said they were so undecided that they were not even leaning one way or another. Or, maybe that is the gap between 308 voters they said they sampled and the 286 voters whose demographics they report - 10% of the sample, a likely proportion. If many voters are undecided, or are leaners, we could potentially see a big shift between this poll and election day - if those people vote. Undecideds and leaners are less likely voters than those who have already decided whom they are supporting. If they turnout, and vote in ways different than many of their neighbors, the results could be very different than this poll.<br />
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Fifth, all the usual problems with telephone polls in the early 21st Century still apply: many citizens do not have land line phones, some are not comfortable with speaking English on the phone, many simply do not respond to polls.<br />
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Remember this poll does not substitute for voting on election day. There is little or nothing promising in this poll for Steve Mahoney, but this poll is even more suspect than many other polls conducted by Forum Research. Treat these results with caution.<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-28862690382763463452014-10-24T11:03:00.000-04:002014-10-24T11:03:03.721-04:00Watching for the geography of the voting resultsI'll be looking at the geographic distribution of the vote on Monday to see if the winner carries the entire city or just portions of it. I don't know of anyone who talks of two Mississaugas, since so much of Mississauga is relatively new.<br />
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However, there is a rough divide between an older and wealthier south and a newer, poorer (and less white) north. Except for Meadowvale and Malton, much of the north has been built up in the last 20 years. Many voters are new Canadians. Few are born and raised in Mississauga. City services like community centres are relatively scarce in the north and spread widely apart. Even public transit on arteries like Dundas and Burnhamthorpe in the south is better than transit in the north, on streets like Britannia or Derry.<br />
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In my previous post, I noted the geographic distribution of the endorsements Steve Mahoney has lined up. His elite-level support in council, Queen's Park and Ottawa tend to come from west Mississauga, and especially south-west Mississauga. These are areas in, or near, where Steve Mahoney and his wife, have held office. Mahoney have emphasized his long connection to the city and his experience in different levels of politics.<br />
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Bonnie Crombie, on the other hand, represented a portion of northwest Mississauga as a MP, and currently represents the entire northeast corner of the city. Much of the northeast is non-residential, but Ward 5 includes Malton and some high- and medium- density areas near along Hurontario, north of Eglinton Avenue. These are diverse neighborhoods, both financially and ethnically. Crombie enjoys the endorsement of Amrit Mangat, MPP for a riding that includes some of Ward 5 (where her husband is running for election) and part of Ward 11 (where George Carlson is neutral). Even though Crombie has not held office for very long, and could not easily claim a strong base of support in these areas, I do not expect that those demographics will favor an older candidate like Mahoney, who stresses a record of experience that predates many of these residents.<br />
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Will Crombie's vote totals on Monday reflect what appears to be her strengths in the north- and east- part of the city? The few existing polls have not broken down support by geographic area. Its possible that the two candidates enjoy similar levels of support in every neighborhood, especially after Mayor McCallion endorsed Crombie.<br />
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However, if Crombie does well in the north of Mississauga, and Mahoney polls strongly in the southwest, the big battleground between Crombie and Mahoney could become in the southeast corner of Mississauga, including the densely populated area around Square One. I expect Crombie's Polish and Ukrainian background helps her in some of those areas, but perhaps not with younger voters around Square One. Win or lose, a geographic split could foretell a looming political divide in the city.<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-91716189739410231072014-10-24T01:00:00.000-04:002014-10-24T10:21:50.542-04:00EndorsementsSince I last blogged about the mayoral election in Mississauga in 2014, Steve Mahoney apologized for the advertisements that suggested incumbent Mayor Hazel McCallion endorsed him. McCallion then surprised Mahoney and many others by explicitly backing Bonnie Crombie. In an unlikely coincidence, Crombie surged in the polls, turning a close race into one where she leads by a wide margin.<br />
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Hazel's endorsement matters. Studies show that in non-partisan local elections, <a href="http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2111257?uid=3739448&uid=2&uid=3737720&uid=4&sid=21104884354497">endorsements matter</a>, largely because voters look for signals about whom to support. In partisan races, one easy signal is the party label, but in the absence of that short-cut towards political understanding, trusted political leaders can substitute. For voters struggling to decide between Crombie and Mahoney, McCallion's endorsement of Crombie, especially after McCallion long promised to stay neutral, is such a signal.<br />
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Up until now, there was not much that gave voters a reliable signal over which candidate to support. Not much differentiates the platforms of two former Liberal MPs. Neither candidate easily can be categorized as being on the left or as being on the right since both promise to expand government services like transit, government supervision on matters like development and planning, but both promise to keep tax rates in check.<br />
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Until the endorsement, Mahoney, his councillor wife Katie, and Crombie have long enjoyed close ties to Mayor McCallion. The close ties between McCallion and both Mahoneys helps explain Katie Mahoney's rather <a href="http://www.mississauga.com/news-story/4913077-councillor-incensed-by-mayor-s-support-for-husband-s-rival/">angry and bitter reaction</a> to the news of Hazel's endorsement. So, losing McCallion's endorsement puts Mahoney at a severe disadvantage if he wants to claim the ability to continue a popular legacy from the incumbent. If Mahoney wanted to run as the voice of change against the establishment, he would have run a very different campaign. McCallion's endorsement takes away an important foundation of his appeal.<br />
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Mahoney is countering with several MP and MPP endorsements. Two, Brad Butt and Bob Dechert, are Conservatives, which is useful for a former Liberal MP and MPP, but at the same time Mahoney's [relative] fiscal conservatism makes such endorsements unsurprising. Furthermore, Butt defeated Crombie in the federal election. It would have been a surprise if he supported her now.<br />
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The ethnic background of endorsers may be used as signals if the endorser is seen as a leader of a particular community. Only one visible minority MPP, Harinder Takhar, endorsed Mahoney. Takhar represents a riding that overlaps with Ward 8, the ward Katie Mahoney represents. Vic Dhillon and Amrit Mangat have endorsed Crombie. The others have not publicly introduced either mayoral candidate.<br />
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Mahoney is highlighting the endorsements of five current members of council, including his wife. All represent western Mississauga. The only councillor in the west who has not endorsed Mahoney, George Carlson (Ward 11). Carlson says that the two candidates have such similar positions, he'll work with both. That is probably one-third of the story. There is surely a strategic element, as Carlson does not want to be caught taking the wrong side and alienating the winner or the winner's supporters. Carlson's last re-election bid was relatively close after Carlson was part of the coalition that favored the inquiry into McCallion's corruption scandal and McCallion tacitly backed his opponent, the co-chair of Bonnie Crombie's campaign!<br />
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The other councilors may have similar strategic concerns. In the absence of parties, these councilors find it expedient to allow Crombie supporters to think they support Crombie, and Mahoney supporters to think they support Mahoney. The absence of an endorsement from them does not mean that they do not think Crombie is qualified, it just means that they have little to gain by offering an endorsement, and a lot to lose in this election, or the next, if they endorse the loser. Long-time friends have less to fear, especially, like in the case of Pat Saito, they have been [re-] elected for decades without much competition.<br />
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The bottom line is that I don't think the absence of councillor endorsements of Crombie is all that indicative of their opinion of Crombie's competence (as Mahoney would lead you to believe), but may be more directly the result of strategic considerations.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-5948421052538027262014-09-22T09:24:00.001-04:002014-09-22T09:24:14.017-04:00Thank you, Hazel (and vote for me)What to do if the wildly popular incumbent is retiring after 36 years in office? Compete over efforts to thank her for her service!<br />
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Both Bonnie Crombie and Steve Mahoney are using Hazel in their social media blitz, encouraging people to either sign an on-line petition (Mahoney) or come to the campaign office to sign a thank you poster (Crombie).<br />
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Here's what Mahoney sent out via twitter. Click the link and you can see a laudatory letter to Hazel from Steve and you can sign the thank you note yourself:
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Hazel entrusts her successor with strong foundation for future of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mississauga?src=hash">#Mississauga</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ThankYouHazel?src=hash">#ThankYouHazel</a> <a href="http://t.co/lbcjpOaKq2">http://t.co/lbcjpOaKq2</a> <a href="http://t.co/RztE8Rhcj6">pic.twitter.com/RztE8Rhcj6</a><br />
— Team Mahoney (@Mahoney4Mayor) <a href="https://twitter.com/Mahoney4Mayor/status/509826199011344384">September 10, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Here's Crombie's sponsored facebook post (which means her campaign paid for it to appear on my timeline; I think Mahoney did the same with a facebook post just like his tweet on September 10):
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEherQEIaHZ-2gtHDxcwU8ycvQ3GIvxBe22uZgUPAObVGWhyphenhyphen2WVfIY7dP8JNH-j2MM6cuYovGIn87_T6JHgR6YlXsZZJ33p3-Tzfw1Jqe67DWN7w3ynyB_qfte_VC3sLvocxBqu9LDfKZz0/s1600/thankyoufrombonnie.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Thank you from Bonnie Facebook post" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEherQEIaHZ-2gtHDxcwU8ycvQ3GIvxBe22uZgUPAObVGWhyphenhyphen2WVfIY7dP8JNH-j2MM6cuYovGIn87_T6JHgR6YlXsZZJ33p3-Tzfw1Jqe67DWN7w3ynyB_qfte_VC3sLvocxBqu9LDfKZz0/s1600/thankyoufrombonnie.JPG" title="" /></a></div>
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Both campaigns clearly think that associating with Hazel with attract voters. Mahoney's use of Hazel's image on a backdrop that matches his campaign's blue could be seen as a devious attempt to make it look like he enjoys Hazel's endorsement (she is officially neutral and has been close to both Crombie and Mahoney) or a brilliant way to connect Hazel with his campaign "brand." I wonder how many people scrolling through their news feed saw Hazel, the Mahoney blue and assumed that he enjoyed her support!<br />
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The question is, will it work? Or do people know that Hazel is neutral?Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-90828035751724920382014-09-18T13:07:00.002-04:002014-09-18T13:18:45.080-04:00A Guide for the Perplexed: Comparing Bonnie Crombie's and Steve Mahoney's PlatformsMany criticize the media for covering the horse-race aspect of elections rather than highlighting and discussing policy differences between the candidates. I wanted to fix that by creating a table that, as best as I could, compared and contrasted the platforms of Mississauga mayoral candidates, <a href="http://www.mississauga.com/news-story/4863690-steve-mahoney-mississauga-mayoralty-candidate/">Bonnie Crombie</a> and <a href="http://www.mississauga.com/news-story/4863690-steve-mahoney-mississauga-mayoralty-candidate/">Steve Mahoney</a>. My sources were each candidates websites (<a href="http://bonniecrombie.ca/platform/">http://bonniecrombie.ca/platform/</a> and <a href="http://www.votemahoney.ca/plan">http://www.votemahoney.ca/plan</a>) along with gleanings from recent news coverage of their campaigns, including their profiles in the Mississauga News.<br />
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The bottom line is that I don't find the sharp divisions between the policy stances of the two leading candidates here in Mississauga like the ones separating mayoral candidates in Toronto. Perhaps one should not be surprised that two former Liberal Party MPs share many of the same visions, or that both aim to earn the support of many who adore popular incumbent Mayor Hazel McCallion while pointing out a few areas where they hope to improve upon her leadership.<br />
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It is not surprising that so many citizens tell pollsters that they are undecided between Ms. Crombie and Mr. Mahoney. There are fourteen other candidates, some of whom like <a href="http://stephenking.ca/platform/transit/">Stephen King</a>, have sharply differing visions for transit, taxes, or public housing, but they do not seem to be gaining any traction among voters.<br />
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Please note that the published platforms are quite vague, but in a recent conversation with Mr. Mahoney and others, I understand that, in person, both candidates tend to be more specific about their recommendations. As a result, I will update this table or create new blog posts as I receive more information. If I have made any errors by omission or commission, please comment and I'll review and revise.<br />
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Finally, a disclaimer: although a resident of Mississauga and a political scientist, I am not a citizen. Therefore, I do not vote and I have not endorsed either candidate.<br />
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Issue</div>
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<a href="http://www.mississauga.com/news-story/4863690-steve-mahoney-mississauga-mayoralty-candidate/">Bonnie Crombie</a></div>
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<a href="http://www.mississauga.com/news-story/4863690-steve-mahoney-mississauga-mayoralty-candidate/">Steve Mahoney</a></div>
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Comments</div>
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Development</div>
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“Smart development based on family-friendly, mixed-use, higher
density development around transit nodes and along major arterial roads”
(especially along Hurontario and “downtown”); prioritizing waterfront
parkland.</div>
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“<span style="background: white; color: #333333;">Appoint a Mississauga
Community Development Facilitator focused on more liveable and active
neighbourhoods</span>.” Dedicated fund for parks and playgrounds;
public-private partnerships to develop waterfront. Bond-like loans from
pension funds or sales of public utilities for infrastructure.</div>
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Lots of buzzwords associated with two pro-development stances that
are implicitly critical of the low-density development that has marked most
of Mississauga’s residential and commercial development until recent years –
when there are no longer many greenfield opportunities for growth.</div>
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Transit</div>
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Two-way frequent Go train service; electrification of Go lines to
speed up service and enable new stations; real-time bus status tracking;
study improvements along Dundas St.</div>
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Two-way frequent Go train service; Build Hurontario LRT and east-west
rapid transit; timed, “intelligent” traffic lights.</div>
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Both candidates largely agree on transit, and both support more
provincial and federal funding to improve transit. Both are silent on potential
bottlenecks like needing to expand the rail corridor through Streetsville (over
inevitable community opposition) to enable two-way, electrified GO service. I’m
skeptical of Crombie’s claim that electrification will speed up service if so
many passengers continue to board at a handful of stations like Cooksville.</div>
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Taxes</div>
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Keep taxes within inflation rate.</div>
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Mahoney’s not making a read-my-lips-no-new-taxes pledge, but his
emphasis on holding tax rates low differentiates his platform from Crombie.</div>
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Anti-Poverty</div>
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Work with food banks; reduce wait times for public housing</div>
</td>
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--</div>
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Both candidates are pro-development to the extent to which they are
implicitly anti-NIMBY. But surprising that neither say anything about
building more public housing or rising housing costs for lower- and
middle-class citizens.</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
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Seniors</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116.85pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Investigate off-peak fare reduction for seniors; senior community
centres; culturally-specific affordable senior housing.</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116.9pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
--</div>
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<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
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Economy</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116.85pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Youth employment initiative; sector-specific incentives; more funding
for arts; new engineering school at Sheridan and UTM</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116.9pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Require more apprenticeships at city; start co-op and experiential
learning program; recruit international universities to Mississauga; market
villages as tourist destinations; encourage recognition of foreign
credentials</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116.9pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Strikingly similar proposals that differ only in some small details.</div>
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Other</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116.85pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Create a “Diversity and Inclusion Advisory Committee”;</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116.9pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -24px;">
Participatory budgeting; improve coordination of newcomer services;
enhanced digital services on-line; fair wage and safety policies for city
projects; create "Office of the Mississauga Ambassador" for immigrant support, diversity programs and business growth.</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 116.9pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Surprisingly, no discussion of increasing services in northwest
Mississauga when there are no open community centres north of Brittania and
west of Hurontario for the next two years. Also, surprising that crime prevention
and policing is not mentioned by either.</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-54713117593577492832013-06-14T12:12:00.000-04:002013-06-14T12:12:15.675-04:00Mayor Hazel scolded, but will remain in office. What does this say about the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act?Today, Judge John Sproat issued his opinion in the case against Mississauga Mayor Hazel McCallion, dismissing the complaint brought by Elias Hazineh that she violated the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act (MCIA). The case was dismissed because Judge Sproat found that Hazineh did not commence his complaint within the six week deadline established by the MCIA and that the votes the complaint focused on would not have applied to Mayor McCallion's son Peter McCallion's hotel project. This raises questions about whether the MCIA provides a viable mechanism for anyone to bring forward charges that politicians violate conflict of interest concerns.<br />
<br />
Judge Sproat was sharply critical of Mayor McCallion's court testimony and some of her actions as mayor. Judge Sproat found that McCallion had the same financial interest as her son according to the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act (making it necessary that she disclose such an interest on any relevant votes), was "willfully blind to the status" of her son's hotel development project and found that Mayor McCallion's "understanding of her legal obligations is contrary to common sense." (see pages 5, 9-10 of the judge's decision here: <a href="http://media.zuza.com/7/1/71e514a8-2d63-41ec-9af1-4eb88a0f1b24/Hazineh_v_McCallion_-_Summary_of_Decision_June_14,_2013.pdf">http://media.zuza.com/7/1/71e514a8-2d63-41ec-9af1-4eb88a0f1b24/Hazineh_v_McCallion_-_Summary_of_Decision_June_14,_2013.pdf</a>)<br />
<br />
Notably, Judge Sproat in his thorough discussion of the evidence, also clearly explained that the votes in question did not apply to Peter McCallion's hotel development, so there was no likelihood that Mayor McCallion's actions would have been motivated by her financial conflict of interest (page 6). I was surprised by how extensively Judge Sproat discussed the evidence given that the the decision was ultimately based on a technicality that Mr. Hazineh did not commence his application within the six week deadline for such filings as prescribed by the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act.<br />
<br />
Mayor McCallion will remain in office, but promises to be in office only for another year. The important question citizens and taxpayers across Ontario must ask in light of the ruling is whether the MCIA must be revised before we could reasonably expect to have the effect on corruption and conflict of interest cases that it is designed to ensure. A six-week deadline to file a complaint may simply be too short of a time span for anyone to decide to challenge the actions of an official who may be acting in a corrupt fashion. This is especially true when a potential whistle-blower must consider the personal financial costs and risks of bring such a complaint. The Municipal Conflict of Interest Act must provide a viable mechanism to remove corrupt officeholders and I am not sure the six-week deadline provides such a viable mechanism. At the same time, seeing that Mayor McCallion reportedly spent $500,000 to defend herself from such charges, there clearly needs to be some barrier against frivolous suits. A six week deadline, though, is too high a barrier.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-28139859210168650262013-02-15T17:13:00.000-05:002013-02-15T17:36:53.571-05:00Respect democracy, respect CrombieThere are several election fraud lawsuits progressing across the GTA. Most involve violations that the candidates spent more than the limit for candidates in local elections. The problem with these regulations is that violations are often quite small and arguably had little impact on the election outcome. Such campaigns are costly for both citizen and defendant and are little more than nuisance lawsuits that dangerously dilute the notion of election fraud.<br />
<br />
Asking a judge to overrule the results of a democratic election is troubling and ought to require a mountain of evidence that the violations were egregious and may have made a difference to the election outcome. More often, these concerns should be raised when the elected official next seeks election.<br />
<br />
Several opponents of Mississauga Ward 5 councillor <a class="g-profile" href="http://plus.google.com/101212734821617178720" target="_blank">+Bonnie Crombie</a> have tried to overturn her narrow victory in the Ward 5 by-election to replace <a class="g-profile" href="http://plus.google.com/113681529075127044844" target="_blank">+Eve Adams</a>. Crombie is right to ask these opponents to <a href="http://www.mississauga.com/news/article/1581918--crombie-says-detractors-need-to-move-on-with-their-lives">move on</a>. Crombie is accused of illegally spending money on a poll before entering the race, and for failing to report the fair market value of products used during her campaign - specifically yard signs recycled from her previous candidacies as a Liberal MP. <a class="g-profile" href="http://plus.google.com/111437904743524731510" target="_blank">+Cecil Young</a> and <a class="g-profile" href="http://plus.google.com/100130639670390032778" target="_blank">+Mark Cashin</a> and their supporters argue that such signs should be valued like new signs or as illegal gifts from the Liberal Party. Crombie argues - correctly- that the value of old yard signs is virtually nil.<br />
<br />
Ironically, Crombie was not the only candidate to recycle signs during the campaign. Most egregiously, Eve Adams' then-husband used her signs even if they said "re-elect."<br />
<br />
Strategically, it was a wise move for Crombie to reuse her Liberal-red signs and those signs arguably played an important role in educating voters about their options. If her use of those signs was against the law, the law should be revised. She was a Liberal MP and that was part of her "brand" and her appeal. As a councillor, she is non-partisan, but reminding voters of her past record of public service and some of the stances she took as a MP would be vital tasks in any election campaign. Such information is necessary for voters to make educated decisions. Party labels play an important role in providing such information to voters who have little other knowledge about the candidates and the issues. Her past record as a center-left Liberal helps many voters fill in the gaps of their own knowledge!<br />
<br />
If voters think that Ms. Crombie won her place on council through underhanded tactics, and I find that unlikely, they should wait until the next election to cast her out. In the meantime, they should find other reasons for voters to choose to elect someone else as Ward 5 Councillor or, perhaps soon, as Mayor!Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-88488431845514157372013-02-14T11:19:00.002-05:002013-02-14T11:20:41.677-05:00Policies in search of a problem, or why citizens hate city hallBrampton residents are angry about one of their neighbors knocking down a small house and building a huge house in its place. It appears that his construction is legal... But in response to the public complaints, Brampton City Council passed new zoning rules that prevent anyone from adding more than 15% of their existing house without gaining a zoning exemption (which takes time and costs money). The new rule will not impact the house that everyone is already upset about. Instead, it will affect almost everyone to expand their kitchen or add a new bedroom or sun room to the back of their house.<br />
<br />
Is anyone asking why council passed this rule, knowing that it a) would not solve the existing problem, b) will create lots of red tape for many other people? Any policy change that fails to solve a perceived existing problem while causing more red tape restricting individual rights and property values for many people can only be called 'bad policy.'<br />
<br />
This is why citizens hate city hall: powerless to stop a [perceived] problem, lacking the guts to admit impotence, and a new rule that overcompensates by generating unnecessary red tape for hundreds.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2013/02/13/brampton_passes_temporary_bylaw_to_restrict_house_expansions_to_15.html">http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2013/02/13/brampton_passes_temporary_bylaw_to_restrict_house_expansions_to_15.html</a><br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-80421428607144518792013-02-12T15:20:00.001-05:002013-02-12T15:32:43.516-05:00Did politics keep Amrit Mangat out of the cabinet?New Ontario Premier <a href="http://plus.google.com/109517069271020314495">+Kathleen Wynne</a> announced her new cabinet yesterday and Mississauga-Brampton South MPP <a href="http://www.amritmangat.onmpp.ca/mHome">Amrit Mangat</a> remains on the back-benches. Mangat’s exclusion appears to have much to do with her support for Wynne opponents <a href="http://plus.google.com/104314840211658060141">+Eric Hoskins</a> and Sandra Pupatello at the recent Ontario Liberal Leadership Convention.<br />
<br />
Wynne’s new cabinet represents a major overhaul and expansion of the executive, so it may be surprising to some that Mangat was not promoted. Wynne will have 27 MPs on her executive committee, including many who are serving for the first time. <br />
<br />
Not surprisingly, most appointments went to allies of Wynne's during her fight to become Premier. All ten MPs who backed her candidacy are ministers, including <a href="http://www.ontarioliberal.ca/OurTeam/WhoWeAre/Detail.aspx?Riding=Brampton-Springdale">Linda Jeffrey</a>, the MPP for Brampton-Springdale. Jeffrey will become Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, a potentially important position for the Peel Region and the challenges the region is facing in the cost of housing. Jeffrey will also serve as chair of the Liberal cabinet. <br />
<br />
Bravely endorsing Wynne before the leadership convention was not a pre-requisite for inclusion in the cabinet. All of Wynne’s announced opponents at the Liberal leadership convention who currently sit as MPPs, Charles Sousa (Mississauga South), <a href="http://plus.google.com/104314840211658060141">+Eric Hoskins</a> (Toronto-St. Paul), Glen Murray (Toronto-Centre), and Harinder Takhar (Mississauga-Erindale) will join Wynne’s cabinet. <br />
<br />
All but Takhar actually received promotions. Sousa will become Finance Minister, Hoskins will be Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Employment, and Murray will assume the infrastructure and transportation portfolios. Since none were seen as a likely winner at the Liberal leadership convention, their candidacies were likely motivated by bids to boost their visibility in order to garner cabinet promotions. Murray, Sousa and Hoskins played their political hands shrewdly, endorsing Wynne after dropping out of the race (Murray withdrew before the convention, while Sousa and Hopkins endorsed during the balloting). Takhar was the only opponent to endorse Pupatello and should count himself lucky to remain in cabinet. <br />
<br />
Mangat was one of three MPPs who initially backed Hoskins’ candidacy for party leadership. Hoskins was eliminated on the first ballot, causing two of his backers,<br />
<br />
Margarett Best (Scarborough-Guildwood) and Tracy MacCharles (Pickering-Scarborough East) to throw their support to Wynne. Mangat, though, endorsed Wynne’s biggest opponent, Sandra Pupatello. Best’s endorsement appears to be too little, too late, as she was demoted from outgoing Premier Dalton McGuinty’s cabinet. MacCharles, though, received the consumer services portfolio. <br />
<br />
Three other Peel Region MPPs who failed to back Wynne until late in the balloting (if ever), Pupatello supporter <a href="http://plus.google.com/111376094032545805206">+Dipika Damerla</a> (Mississauga East—Cooksville), and Gerard Kennedy supporters <a href="http://plus.google.com/100621404468962391993">+Bob Delaney</a> (Mississauga-Streetsville) and Vic Dhillon (Brampton West) will join Mangat on the back-benches. Dhillon & Mangat received Parliamentary Assistant appointments.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-65734347060931898042011-10-07T11:14:00.000-04:002011-10-07T11:14:13.566-04:00Unofficial/Official Election ResultsOfficial/unofficial election results for Mississauga-Brampton South are here: <a href="http://www.wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-district-results.aspx?d=047">http://www.wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-district-results.aspx?d=047</a><br />
<br />
The most interesting results in Peel were probably just to the east in Bramalea-Gore-Malton<br />
<a href="http://www.wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-district-results.aspx?d=006">http://www.wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-district-results.aspx?d=006</a> where the NDP won by about 2,000 votes. The NDP candidate, Jagmeet Singh, also ran for the NDP in the federal election and lost by a whisker. The NDP are looking at him as a future star, and a model for winning other ridings in Peel, especially in ridings with large amounts of new Canadians.<br />
<br />
The rest of Brampton was marked by controversies surrounding local PC nominees, all of whom failed to win despite strong showings by the Conservatives in May.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-46005862753936319622011-10-07T11:09:00.000-04:002011-10-07T11:09:25.372-04:00Tories Missing in Action<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">What happened to the Conservative/PC voters in Mississauga-Brampton South? </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">New Tory MP Eve Adams won 23,632 votes in May. Liberal candidate Navdeep Bains received 18,579 votes in defeat. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">A few months later, Liberal MPP Amrit Mangat won only 15,579 to win re-election. PC Candidate Amarjeet Gill won only 10,285 votes, less than 45% of Adams' total! </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">That is a really poor showing even </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">if we give Adams (a veteran politician) credit for attracting voters to the Conservatives who might not otherwise do so, even in a year where Prime Minister Harper enjoyed a strong tailwind. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">But she still might not have won without the strong showing by the NDP in Mississauga-Brampton South. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">I thought that the riding might still be in play if the PCs could only identify Adams' supporters and turn many of them out again. Gill (and Hudak) clearly failed. He was not alone: NDP candidate Karanjit Pandher only won 57% of the votes that the Federal NDP candidate won.Sure, Gill won 1000 more votes than his PC predecessor, but Mangat won almost 20,000 votes in 2007. About 4,000 voters who had cast their ballot for Mangat and McGuinty in 2007 did not in 2011! That is a missed opportunity in a district that has seen its population increase.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">It often takes another election to write the analysis of the previous one. Now it is clear that the dynamics of Harper/Layton/Ignatieff, and a preference for a majority government clearly hurt Bains. A stronger Liberal (or NDP?) federal campaign could cost Adams her seat after one term. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">Gill emphasized taxes, taxes and more taxes that all of us must hate paying (or we'd live in Toronto). I thought the PCs could have done more damage reminding voters of the many missteps of the McGuinty administration (eHealth, eco-fees, HST). They tried to emulate Rob Ford, but in the end, they emulated the Libertarians (Christin Milloy won 691 votes) by calling for low taxes without creating a sense of anger that the Grits were wasting money at Queen's Park. Ford called for lower taxes, but also jumped on some relatively small-change symbols of waste at Toronto City Hall. Without this sense of anger, Gill failed to mobilize voters who would be most inclined to vote PC based on their recent voting habits, and could not attract many of the disillusioned supporters of his main opponent. They just stayed home, which is their prerogative in a democracy where they will be led again by McGuinty and represented by Mangat.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Charter', Times, serif; font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;"><br />
</span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-62075094238031510572011-10-03T15:30:00.000-04:002011-10-03T15:30:59.632-04:00Mississauga Judicial InquiryNot many surprises in the report released this morning by Justice Cunningham. Mayor McCallion did not break any laws, which raises real concerns about the existing laws and the current governance structures to protect the citizens of Mississauga against corruption.<br />
<br />
The mayor is unapologetic, but forgets that unethical is not the same as illegal. As a society, we try to make our laws consistent with our sense of what is right and wrong, but the circumstances surrounding OMERS and the City's dealings over Enersource and a proposed hotel near Square One show that incidents arise that are legal but not ethical.<br />
<br />
Ex-City Manager David O'Brien clearly had a personal pecuniary interest that conflicted with his role as city manager when negotiating the veto by OMERS over Enersource.<br />
<br />
Even if Peter McCallion was not the mayor's son, and even if he never actually made any real money on the deal, it is clear that two Friends of Hazel got a sweetheart deal to double their money to serve as the lead developers until a real, qualified developer could be found. Lucky for the McCallion family, they did not personally benefit, but this is cronyism and the only value these developers brought to negotiations with OMERS was that they were backed by the mayor.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-36450998590757603932011-09-19T12:02:00.001-04:002011-09-19T12:04:16.184-04:00Dianne Douglas gets the Mississauga News' endorsementI promised I would link to Dianne Douglas' website if she had one. She does now! Its a good thing, because she got the Mississauga News endorsement. Kudos to any candidate without name recognition to come out of nowhere, get an endorsement and be considered a "contender" without seemingly spending a lot of money on the campaign. If she does not win today, I hope she's encouraged to seek office again. <a href="http://votediannedouglas-ward5.blogspot.com/2011/09/voting-day-monday-september-19-2011.html?spref=bl">Vote Dianne Douglas - Ward 5: Voting Day – Monday, September 19, 2011</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-1980841489567147372011-09-19T11:54:00.000-04:002011-09-19T11:54:54.428-04:00Mississauga Blog: Who's up for a spelling lesson?<div>I'm glad I'm not the only one concerned about typos in this town. </div><a href="http://www.mississauga.com/blog/post/1080589--who-s-up-for-a-spelling-lesson">Mississauga Blog: Who's up for a spelling lesson?</a><div>Who is responsible for Ms. Crombie's copy-editing and why aren't they using a spell-checker?</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-65232173454395541742011-09-02T17:37:00.001-04:002011-09-02T17:40:48.134-04:00Bad Ideas for Ward 5<div style="background-color: transparent;"><span id="internal-source-marker_0.4272663975134492" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I complained in a previous post that there were few good ideas proposed in the candidate speeches during the Rogers 10 candidates forum.</span></div><div style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></div><div style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There were a few bad ideas floated. The three stars of the game:<br />
*** </span><a href="http://stevebatortrustee.webs.com/">Steve Bator</a> wants to put more cops on bikes in Malton. I like community policing, but I'm not sure bikes make a lot of sense in Malton in February.<br />
<br />
**Jamie Dookin promises to fund five university scholarships instead of spending money on campaign signs. IMHO, not a great campaign strategy and also not a very effective or efficient public policy (if the recipients qualify for financial aid anyway from the province, will this simply replace that aid?).<br />
<br />
* <a href="http://www.mississauga.com/news/article/1059057--candidate-will-work-for-free">Sandeep Patara</a> will work for free, donating his salary back into the community. A noble gimmick, but I would be worried if working for free will cause him to work at one of his restaurants (or as a software developer?) more often than at City Hall. How do you fire someone who works for free?<br />
<br />
Honourable Omission + Mention<br />
I do give Cecil Young credit for not bringing up some of the ideas he advances on his <a href="http://www.onecanada.org/"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #000099; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">website</span></a>, like replacing taxes with a "government services fee" that looks like taxes, sounds like taxes, but is somehow different... However, he did promise to limit himself to three terms in office, which sounds noble, except that he's 55 years old and really, all he is doing is promising to work until he reaches retirement age and can draw his pension.<br />
<br />
<br />
As an aside: I wonder why so few candidates do not have websites! How can one vote for a candidate who does not have a website? Jamie Dookin can still give away scholarships with a free site from <a href="http://www.weebly.com/">http://www.weebly.com/</a>!<br />
</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-67994706948609279362011-09-01T15:11:00.000-04:002011-09-01T15:11:43.949-04:00ThreeHundredEight.com: PCs reduced to slimmest of majority in Ontario<a href="http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/09/pcs-reduced-to-slimmest-of-majority-in.html?spref=bl">ThreeHundredEight.com: PCs reduced to slimmest of majority in Ontario</a>: Two new polls this week released by Forum Research and Angus-Reid show the Progressive Conservatives on the decline...<div>
<br /></div><div><i>Threehundredeight.com still projects a substantial win for the Liberals in Mississauga-Brampton South.</i></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-92210990502891953592011-08-31T22:20:00.003-04:002011-08-31T22:34:39.945-04:00Bonnie Crombie's Capitalization Issues<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div>I don't understand how professional politicians and their teams make spelling and grammatical errors in their campaign literature. I think nothing broadcasts, "I don't pay close attention to details, nor does my staff" like a grammatical mistake.<br />
<br />
Spelling errors in the era of spell-checkers just signals incompetence. But maybe only teachers like me care?<br />
Warren Kinsella flagged some flubs by Tim Hudak's campaign <a href="http://warrenkinsella.com/2011/08/tim-hudk-iz-a-grate-spelur/">here</a>.<br />
<i>(Note: I deny responsibility if any of my former students were responsible for Hudak's errors).</i><br />
<br />
Now, I'll admit I'm not the most detailed-oriented guy, and my wife reminds me almost daily that my grammar is far from perfect, but if candidates are not going to pay close attention to how they communicate here in Mississauga, then this blog will!<br />
<br />
Now, I'll admit that failing to capitalize words is less egregious than misspelling "bureaucracy" or "education". <i>But, who fails to capitalize street names? </i><b>Bonnie Crombie! </b><br />
Twice in the same "<a href="http://www.votecrombie.ca/?page_id=164">10 Point Plan for Ward 5</a>" (see screenshot below).<br />
<a href="http://www.votecrombie.ca/?page_id=164" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhycBPYRxxCeH2EQkLgdIyF0r91nvXl6vUrRQKRNJSuaaAHIOxv7Hz1plXnBdG-nEMut-PqVPUW1ciFWDnWTHBrBUZ5ixmyOQfnhr7muq_y13GNeNJg5saHhFpoHfrRwyOSDdd1nQe4EmU/s1600/crombie.JPG" /></a><br />
Mysteriously, a capital H also disappeared from "Malton Community Health Centre," and I'm befuddled by multiple mistakes in her description of <a href="http://miranet.ca/articles/Britannia_Farm.htm">Britannia Farm</a> (capital B, capital F, not "Brittania farms").<br />
<br />
Finally, look at item #8. Either that line contains two items (<i>hey, its an eleven point plan!</i>), or there is a grammatical mistake.<br />
<br />
I'm not sure because I'm too distracted by #4. Number 4 is kosher, but would really read much better if Ms. Crombie would "prioritize affordable housing." I wonder if she was concerned that she should really "prioritise affordable housing," but was unsure which spelling of the verb was correct in Canada. I'm an American, so I wasn't sure, but the <a href="http://www.lukemastin.com/testing/spelling/cgi-bin/database.cgi?action=view_category&database=spelling&category=P">internet</a> (<a href="http://www.lukemastin.com/testing/spelling/cgi-bin/database.cgi?action=view_category&database=spelling&category=P">Luke Mastin</a>) says it should be a <i>zed</i> in Canada.<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 15px;"></span><br />
<h3 class="r" style="display: inline; font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br />
</h3>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-1506888912087276162011-08-31T01:42:00.001-04:002011-08-31T01:47:44.306-04:00Ward 5 Candidates Speak - 1The southern end of Mississauga-Brampton South get to vote for a City Council by-election in September.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://miranet.ca/">MIRANET</a>, Mississauga News & Rogers Cable 10 brought over 20 of the 27 candidates together for a televised forum earlier this week. The forum will be rebroadcast repeatedly in the coming days (see schedule <a href="http://miranet.ca/articles/Ward_5_By-election_2011.htm">here</a>).<br />
<br />
I just finished watching the candidates' opening speeches. Each candidate was allocated 3 minutes to talk directly to the camera. For me, this was exciting. Throughout most of Europe, parties are allocated free time to broadcast advertisements one after the other. So, these speeches were like a little taste of Europe in my Mississauga basement. All that was missing was some brie and chablis.<br />
<br />
The event drew little press coverage (see <a href="http://www.mississauga.com/blog/post/1073715">here</a>, <a href="http://www.mississauga.com/feature/article/1073042--candidates-duke-it-out">here</a>, and <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/mississauga-by-election-candidates-promise-to-end-maltons-alienation/article2146626/&rct=j&sa=X&ei=yKtdTofCLarb0QHQ5L3QAg&ved=0CDgQ-AsoATAB&q=ward+5&usg=AFQjCNEc3SQgXBcf5pOg2QGCc6t7EuqcGw">here</a>). Most of the coverage focused on three big names in the race, Peter Adams, <a href="http://www.votecrombie.ca//">Bonnie Crombie</a> and <a href="http://www.carolynparrish.ca/">Carolyn Parrish</a>, and none of the reporters said anything about the taped speeches. So, I thought I would watch and comment...<br />
<br />
Its not going to be an easy choice for many in the Ward 5. Many candidates echoed the same issues, the same concerns and made similar promises. What I was looking for was whether any candidates could come up with a clear reason why people should vote for him/her. Canadian Political Strategist Geoff Norquay calls this a "<a href="http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/norquay.pdf">ballot question</a>". In a crowded race like this one, I think its a critical one. There has to be something distinctive that sets a candidate apart from his/her competition. Something that will allow voters to succinctly explain to their peers who they are voting for and why.<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Academic digression:</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">This tendency to construct or desire a set of reasons to facillitate a difficult choice was identified by academics studying decision-making in a range of different contexts. Shafir, Simonson and Tversky call "<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/001002779390034S">Reason based choice</a>" in a seminal paper.</span><br />
<br />
I sat through every single three minute speech and was dutifully unimpressed. There were few good new ideas or policy proposals floated. Candidates promised to be accessible, reliable and trustworthy. I'm not suggesting these are not valuable traits. After all, eight years ago, the Ward 5 councilor went to jail for bribery. So, three big cheers that no candidate publicly signaled that their vote could be bought. <snore><br />
<br />
Every candidate stressed uncontroversial valence issues that no one would argue against (<i>We need more efficient government! We need more health and social services in Malton! We need to get tough on gangs!</i>). Most talked about their qualifications and personal backgrounds. Thats a great, low-risk strategy, but with more than 20 opponents, I'm not sure its a very smart strategy except for those candidates with the highest profile in the Ward.<br />
<br />
Ok... So voters can choose from candidates who emphasize cutting taxes or those who emphasize increasing services. Most of these candidates called for more services <i><b>and </b></i>less taxes which may be impossible unless they find gold while widening Eglinton Ave. Voters can choose between fresh faces or experienced politicians, independent voices or buddies of the mayor. And lets not forget that some candidates live in the Ward 5, some candidates are visible minorities, some are women and a few speak foreign language(s).<br />
<br />
It would have been a better evening if my wife had agreed to join me in a drinking game whenever a candidate mentioned the Goreway Bridge or the new community health centre in Malton. She didn't. Pity, but I'm not sure we have enough wine or beer in the house to accomodate all of the drinking we would have had to do.<br />
<br />
I was impressed with Dianne Douglas, Eve Adams' executive assistant while she was councilor. I was not alone- <a href="http://www.mississauga.com/blog/post/1073715--who-won">Gerry Timbers</a> called her the winner of the race.<br />
Douglas' speech was well-practiced, smoothly delivered and did a great job recognizing that the needs of Malton were quite different than the needs of the Heartland area. She clearly came off as someone who understands the area. That leaves me with two questions:<br />
<br />
<ol><li>Why doesn't Douglas have a website? I would link to it. Promise.</li>
<li>What does it say about a candidate if your former boss' husband runs against you? Or, perhaps the appropriate question is: what does it say about your former boss' husband if you decide to take a leave of absence from your job to run against him?</li>
</ol><br />
Some quick judgments and questions (again, just based on the candidate speeches):<br />
<br />
<ul><li>It took Peter Adams less than 15 seconds to mention his wife's name and remind everyone that they live in the Ward.</li>
<li>Bonnie Crombie was surprisingly negative towards her opponents considering she says she has a <a href="http://www.votecrombie.ca/?page_id=164">positive vision</a> and promises to refrain from the infighting that supposedly has plagued Mississauga City Council in recent years. She says she "plays on the mayor's team," which tells me that the only infighting she disapproves of is the criticism that occasionally gets directed at Mayor Hazel McCallion. </li>
<li>How angry and bitter is Kulvinder Bobbie Daid? Do the voters in Ward 5 share her angst?</li>
<li><a href="http://www.jakedheer.ca/">Jake Dheer's</a> cheerful on-camera presence was a sharp contrast to Daid's anger, but who originated the line about traffic taking away from family time? Because Mark Cashin said the exact same line. </li>
<li>There are jobs and there are the jobs that Jamie Dookin promises to bring to the community. Funny how the number of jobs always ends in a multiple of ten.</li>
<li>Why does Grant Isaac need to secure his glasses with a string while he sits in front of TV camera? Isaac was surprisingly unprepared and unscripted for his three-minute talk. What kind of law does he practice?</li>
<li>I'm not sure I want any elected official to promise that I'll know in advance how they will vote on major issues, Olive Rose Steele! After all, those votes take place after debates, after amendments to a bill are proposed, and after votes are traded and negotiated over. Declaring in advance what you'll do could render you both close-minded and ineffective.</li>
<li>Did <a href="http://www.barbaratabuno.com/">Barbara Hazel Tabuno</a> get tips on delivery from <a href="http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0007378/">Elle Woods</a>?</li>
<li>I expected the novice candidates to have trouble speaking to the cameras. But <a href="http://rickwilliams.ca/">Rick Williams</a> is an experienced, elected politician. Could you look up once in awhile?</li>
<li><a href="http://www.onecanada.org/">Cecil Young</a> was the last to speak, and surprisingly, brought up issues and proposals that no one else did. That is not easy to do after more than 20 other speeches. Snaps for Mr. Young!</li>
</ul><br />
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-90626025611546393382011-08-30T11:31:00.001-04:002011-08-30T15:38:34.664-04:00Mississauga-Brampton South: A populous, growing and diverse riding<div style="background-color: transparent;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="internal-source-marker_0.43705561058595777" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mississauga-Brampton South is a populous, growing and diverse </span><a href="http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/PopUpWindows.asp?ED=35047"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #000099; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">riding</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. </span></span></div><div style="background-color: transparent;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">According to the 2006 Census, the riding grew by nearly 20% between 2001 and 2006. With new developments built the last few years east of McLaughlin Road in Mississauga, the riding has continued to grow, but at a slower pace. New warehouse and office developments towards Pearson Airport to the east of the riding, in the far north-west corner of the riding and in nearby Mississauga-Streetsville have helped fuel the growth.</span></div><div style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The riding is relatively wealthy, with a median family income of more than $70,000. There are only a few large apartment buildings in the riding. More than 75% of the population live in owner-occupied single-family, semi-detached or row homes although some homes include multiple families or multi-generational family units. Just a couple of farms remind residents that only 20-25 years ago, this area was largely agricultural.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">While there are local bus services, especially along Hurontario St., and the area is served by two GO Transit lines, cars dominate life in this part of the 905 suburbs. Residents drive to the supermarket, to the Heartland Mall, to libraries, community centres, hockey rinks and soccer fields. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There is no real centre to the </span><a href="http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/PopUpWindows.asp?ED=35047"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #000099; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">riding</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">. Traffic flows almost every direction at rush hour. The heart of the riding is entirely commercial. Virtually all of the riding in Mississauga south of the 407, east of Hurontario and north of Matheson Blvd is commercial, as is the eastern arm of the riding north of Eastgate Parkway and Eglinton Ave. So, there are really five distinct residential areas in the riding: </span></span><br />
<div dir="ltr" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Levi Creek and Old Meadowvale in the northwest corner of the riding in Mississauga and the new developments along McLaughlin Rd.</span></div><div dir="ltr" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Neighborhoods along Fletcher’s Creek in Brampton north of the 407 and their neighbors east of Hurontario living beside Peel Village and Brampton Golf Courses.</span></div><div dir="ltr" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Neighborhoods south of the Heartland Mall on both sides of McLaughlin Rd.</span></div><div dir="ltr" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A mix of townhouses and large single-family houses around the Grand Highland Golf Course and Frank McKechnie Community Centre between Hurontario and Highway 403.</span></div><div dir="ltr" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Relatively older neighborhoods east of Square One, north of Burnhamthorpe Rd.</span></div><div dir="ltr" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A few of the high rise buildings that surround the Square One mall at the centre of Mississauga are in the riding. </span></div><div dir="ltr" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">These neighborhoods do not shop, eat, play or send their children to school in the same places. Neighborhoods in the east enjoy close connections and share community services with the neighborhoods immediately south of them. Residents in the west of the riding will often shop, play and go to school in Mississauga-Streetsville. A large Sikh community north of the 407 in Brampton is split between this riding and Brampton-West.</span></div><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In 2006, 60% of the riding were categorized as visible minorites, many of whom are South Asian. But that is only part of the picture. During the World Cup, many different flags are displayed. There is a substantial Portugese community, Italians and East Europeans, and immigrants from the Caribbean. The large percentage of (relatively affluent) immigrants in the community could lead to some electoral volatility.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The large commercial areas in and around the riding might suggest that jobs may not be as big of an issue here than elsewhere in the GTA. Many of the immigrants in the riding enjoy a measure of financial stability that enabled them to move their families into these single-family homes. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The environment may be a more salient concern to some. The Credit River and its tributaries snake through the riding, and residents enjoy many walking paths and parklands. Like other residents of Peel Region, there is curbside collection of recycling and compost. But few would cut back on their driving habits that rely heavily on large minivans and SUVs.</span></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7569589775737810727.post-1687838703494363532011-08-29T17:16:00.000-04:002011-08-29T21:29:52.110-04:00Mississauga-Brampton South / IntroductionHi. I teach Political Science at <a href="http://www.utsc.utoronto.ca/">University of Toronto - Scarborough</a> in the <a href="http://www.utsc.utoronto.ca/~socsci/">Department of Social Sciences</a>. I have taught at U of T since 2003, when I completed my Ph.D. in Political Science at <a href="http://www.duke.edu/">Duke University</a>. Although I normally focus on the U.S., Israel and other countries outside of Canada, my family and I live in the riding of Mississauga-Brampton South. I just volunteered to be a "<a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1037239--letter-from-the-editor-be-a-star-election-community-blogger">Community Blogger</a>" for the <a href="http://thestar.com/">Toronto Star</a> for my riding. Provincial election day is October 6, 2011. Here in Mississauga-Brampton South, incumbent Liberal <a href="http://www.amritmangat.onmpp.ca/">Amrit Mangat</a> (Liberal Party) will face off against realtor <a href="http://amarjeetgill.com/">Amarjeet Gill</a> (PC). The NDP has not yet named a candidate (but will).<br />
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The campaign in Mississauga-Brampton South could be interesting. Last spring, there was a federal election and the Liberal incumbent, <a href="http://www.navdeepbains.ca/">Navdeep Bains</a>, lost to Mississauga City Councilor <a href="http://eveadamsmp.ca/">Eve Adams</a> (Conservative Party). Compared to the previous federal election (in 2008), Adams won 60% more votes than her Conservative predecessor, Salma Ataullahjan (now a Senator). Echoing nationwide gains, the NDP share of the vote also increased by more than 50%, but ran a distant third, with less than 18% of the vote.<br />
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Before 2010, the riding was quite safe for the Liberals. Bains won with 54% of the vote in 2006 and 57% of the vote in 2004. In the provincial election of 2007, Mangat won almost the exact same share of the vote as Bains did in 2006, with 53.6% of the vote. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississauga%E2%80%94Brampton_South_(provincial_electoral_district)">The Conservative nominee, Ravi Singh, only won 25% of the vote, while the Greens and the NDP each won 10%</a>.<br />
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Adams' win in the spring suggests that Mississauga-Brampton South suggests that the Ontario Provincial Conservatives might have a chance to unseat Mangat. However, even though similar numbers of voters in the riding have voted Liberal for both federal and provincial representation in the past, there are some key differences between the federal campaign dynamics and the provincial campaign dynamics.<br />
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In the spring, the federal election was fought by the incumbent Conservatives with an appeal to be given a majority in Ottawa. During the campaign, the leader of the NDP, Jack Layton, attracted many voters to the NDP, while the Liberal Party leader's popularity suffered in the face of relentless attack ads placed by the Conservatives. The Conservatives did win a majority in Ottawa, and the NDP surpassed the Liberals to become the official opposition. Layton passed away last week, raising questions about the NDP's ability to attract voters without his place at the head of the party.<br />
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In contrast to the Conservative minority, Liberals under Dalton McGuinty have governed with a majority in Queen's Park since 2003. They won reelection four years ago after the PC campaign lost steam after making some controversial pledges to increase funding for non-Catholic religious schools. Since then, the economy has not been great in Ontario, but Mississauga has enjoyed both economic growth and rising real estate prices. The Liberals may be able to run on their record to win re-election. However, the PCs lead in most provincial polls, as many voters seem to think that McGuinty has been in power long enough, especially considering debacles like an unpopular effort to raise environmental impact fees and an expensive embarrassment over high-paid consultants at <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2009/06/07/ehealth-kramer.html">eHealth Ontario</a>.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08064379034002536324noreply@blogger.com0