Mississauga-Brampton South / Introduction

Hi. I teach Political Science at University of Toronto - Scarborough in the Department of Social Sciences. I have taught at U of T since 2003, when I completed my Ph.D. in Political Science at Duke University. Although I normally focus on the U.S., Israel and other countries outside of Canada, my family and I live in the riding of Mississauga-Brampton South. I just volunteered to be a "Community Blogger" for the Toronto Star for my riding. Provincial election day is October 6, 2011. Here in Mississauga-Brampton South, incumbent Liberal Amrit Mangat (Liberal Party) will face off against realtor Amarjeet Gill (PC). The NDP has not yet named a candidate (but will).

The campaign in Mississauga-Brampton South could be interesting. Last spring, there was a federal election and the Liberal incumbent, Navdeep Bains, lost to Mississauga City Councilor Eve Adams (Conservative Party). Compared to the previous federal election (in 2008), Adams won 60% more votes than her Conservative predecessor, Salma Ataullahjan (now a Senator). Echoing nationwide gains, the NDP share of the vote also increased by more than 50%, but ran a distant third, with less than 18% of the vote.

Before 2010, the riding was quite safe for the Liberals. Bains won with 54% of the vote in 2006 and 57% of the vote in 2004. In the provincial election of 2007, Mangat won almost the exact same share of the vote as Bains did in 2006, with 53.6% of the vote. The Conservative nominee, Ravi Singh, only won 25% of the vote, while the Greens and the NDP each won 10%.

Adams' win in the spring suggests that Mississauga-Brampton South suggests that the Ontario Provincial Conservatives might have a chance to unseat Mangat. However, even though similar numbers of voters in the riding have voted Liberal for both federal and provincial representation in the past, there are some key differences between the federal campaign dynamics and the provincial campaign dynamics.

In the spring, the federal election was fought by the incumbent Conservatives with an appeal to be given a majority in Ottawa. During the campaign, the leader of the NDP, Jack Layton, attracted many voters to the NDP, while the Liberal Party leader's popularity suffered in the face of relentless attack ads placed by the Conservatives. The Conservatives did win a majority in Ottawa, and the NDP surpassed the Liberals to become the official opposition. Layton passed away last week, raising questions about the NDP's ability to attract voters without his place at the head of the party.

In contrast to the Conservative minority, Liberals under Dalton McGuinty have governed with a majority in Queen's Park since 2003. They won reelection four years ago after the PC campaign lost steam after making some controversial pledges to increase funding for non-Catholic religious schools. Since then, the economy has not been great in Ontario, but Mississauga has enjoyed both economic growth and rising real estate prices. The Liberals may be able to run on their record to win re-election. However, the PCs lead in most provincial polls, as many voters seem to think that McGuinty has been in power long enough, especially considering debacles like an unpopular effort to raise environmental impact fees and an expensive embarrassment over high-paid consultants at  eHealth Ontario.